Experts from the Tony Blair Institute have created a model to assess the threat posed by Iran’s revolutionary guard under the new presidency of Ebrahim Raisi.
Analysts Saeid Golkar and Kasra Aarabi have examined the hierarchy and internal feuding in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to help foreign powers to assess its power and influence under the incoming regime.
Mr Raisi will assume Iran’s presidency on Thursday, having been elected with a low turnout in June from a small field of predominantly conservative politicians.
He has previously been identified as a central figure in the “death committees” that sentenced thousands of regime critics to death in 1988 at the end of the Iran-Iraq war for their political and religious views.
The institute’s paper, The IRGC in the Age of Ebrahim Raisi: Decision-Making and Factionalism in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, was published on Monday.
It explores his relationship with the IRGC and predicts its members will be given key ministerial roles.
“The IRGC’s enthusiastic reaction to Raisi’s presidency further underlines that the Guard will form the engine and foundation of his administration,” it says.
“It is for this reason that understanding the IRGC’s decision-making and inner workings is more important than ever before.”
It says the IRGC is pivotal to Mr Raisi’s ambitions to eventually replace his 82-year-old mentor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic and describes the group as the “kingmaker”.
“Raisi’s election as president was a de facto appointment by Khamenei,” the report says.
“Raisi is fully aware that if he is to become the next supreme leader, he will need the IRGC’s backing more than ever before – not least because anti-regime dissent is surging in Iran and the IRGC is Khamenei’s iron fist.
“Critically for Khamenei and his successor, the IRGC will play a vital role in smoothing the transition to the next supreme leader. In short, the Guard can be the kingmaker.
“It is no exaggeration to say that the future of the Islamic Republic is the IRGC.”
It explains the IRGC is divided into three strands – economic, political and security – and that monitoring which section is given the most positions by Mr Raisi will help governments to assess future risks.
“Because the IRGC is not a monothetic organisation, there is competition among the economic, political and security-intelligence centres of power, which sometimes becomes clear despite the regime’s attempts to show it is a unified ideological armed force,” it says.
“It is not yet clear which of these three power centres will have the upper hand during the Raisi administration and occupy the majority of political positions.
“Based on the new model presented in this paper, the centre of power with the most members in the administration gives an indication to policymakers as to the policy priorities Raisi’s government is likely to pursue. Competition and collaboration among the Guard’s factions and elites will shape the future stability of the regime.
“The model presented here enables governments and decision-makers to recognise these intra-elite dynamics so as to identify emerging threats, challenges and opportunities – and produce effective policy responses.”
Human rights lawyer Geoffrey Robertson, who wrote a groundbreaking report on the 1988 Iranian prison massacres, has predicted Mr Raisi will be a stay-at-home President of Iran because of the threat of arrest and prosecution owing to his role in the killings.
“We now have an international criminal as president of the state of Iran,” Mr Robertson said after Mr Raisi’s election victory.
“If he ever ventures out of Iran, any democratic country would be entitled under universal jurisdiction to arrest him and put him on trial.”
Mr Raisi is expected to resume talks on the 2015 nuclear deal but has previously said he will not meet US president Joe Biden.
The Iranian president is presently the subject of US sanctions for human rights abuses including a brutal crackdown on Iran’s Green Movement protests in 2009.
Muslim Council of Elders condemns terrorism on religious sites
The Muslim Council of Elders has strongly condemned the criminal attacks on religious sites in Britain.
It firmly rejected “acts of terrorism, which constitute a flagrant violation of the sanctity of houses of worship”.
“Attacking places of worship is a form of terrorism and extremism that threatens peace and stability within societies,” it said.
The council also warned against the rise of hate speech, racism, extremism and Islamophobia. It urged the international community to join efforts to promote tolerance and peaceful coexistence.
Trump v Khan
2016: Feud begins after Khan criticised Trump’s proposed Muslim travel ban to US
2017: Trump criticises Khan’s ‘no reason to be alarmed’ response to London Bridge terror attacks
2019: Trump calls Khan a “stone cold loser” before first state visit
2019: Trump tweets about “Khan’s Londonistan”, calling him “a national disgrace”
2022: Khan’s office attributes rise in Islamophobic abuse against the major to hostility stoked during Trump’s presidency
July 2025 During a golfing trip to Scotland, Trump calls Khan “a nasty person”
Sept 2025 Trump blames Khan for London’s “stabbings and the dirt and the filth”.
Dec 2025 Trump suggests migrants got Khan elected, calls him a “horrible, vicious, disgusting mayor”
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.6-litre turbo
Transmission: six-speed automatic
Power: 165hp
Torque: 240Nm
Price: From Dh89,000 (Enjoy), Dh99,900 (Innovation)
On sale: Now
The five pillars of Islam
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Director: James Cameron
Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana
Rating: 4.5/5
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
INFO
Fixtures (6pm UAE unless stated)
Saturday Bournemouth v Leicester City, Chelsea v Manchester City (8.30pm), Huddersfield v Tottenham Hotspur (3.30pm), Manchester United v Crystal Palace, Stoke City v Southampton, West Bromwich Albion v Watford, West Ham United v Swansea City
Sunday Arsenal v Brighton (3pm), Everton v Burnley (5.15pm), Newcastle United v Liverpool (6.30pm)
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Celta Vigo 2
Castro (45'), Aspas (82')
Barcelona 2
Dembele (36'), Alcacer (64')
Red card: Sergi Roberto (Barcelona)
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Russia's Muslim Heartlands
Dominic Rubin, Oxford
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Summer special
First Person
Richard Flanagan
Chatto & Windus
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Xpanceo
Started: 2018
Founders: Roman Axelrod, Valentyn Volkov
Based: Dubai, UAE
Industry: Smart contact lenses, augmented/virtual reality
Funding: $40 million
Investor: Opportunity Venture (Asia)
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
WWE Super ShowDown results
Seth Rollins beat Baron Corbin to retain his WWE Universal title
Finn Balor defeated Andrade to stay WWE Intercontinental Championship
Shane McMahon defeated Roman Reigns
Lars Sullivan won by disqualification against Lucha House Party
Randy Orton beats Triple H
Braun Strowman beats Bobby Lashley
Kofi Kingston wins against Dolph Zigggler to retain the WWE World Heavyweight Championship
Mansoor Al Shehail won the 50-man Battle Royal
The Undertaker beat Goldberg
Squid Game season two
Director: Hwang Dong-hyuk
Stars: Lee Jung-jae, Wi Ha-joon and Lee Byung-hun
Rating: 4.5/5
UK’s AI plan
- AI ambassadors such as MIT economist Simon Johnson, Monzo cofounder Tom Blomfield and Google DeepMind’s Raia Hadsell
- £10bn AI growth zone in South Wales to create 5,000 jobs
- £100m of government support for startups building AI hardware products
- £250m to train new AI models
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
Company%20Profile
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ABU%20DHABI%20CARD
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It
Director: Andres Muschietti
Starring: Bill Skarsgard, Jaeden Lieberher, Sophia Lillis, Chosen Jacobs, Jeremy Ray Taylor
Three stars
COMPANY PROFILE
Initial investment: Undisclosed
Investment stage: Series A
Investors: Core42
Current number of staff: 47
